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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

JAX
47.9%
HOU
52.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.093 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 24
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

JAX

Tre Herndon CB Out Knee
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Calf
Jordan Smith DE Questionable Knee

HOU

Lonnie Johnson CB Out Thigh
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Illness
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 21
–
HOU 37

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:43 TD HOU (6:43) 64-J.McCray reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ingram left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 02:30 TD HOU (2:30) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 12:25 TD JAX (12:25) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 84-C.Manhertz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – HOU 14
  • Q2 08:11 FG HOU (8:11) 16-J.Slye 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. JAX 7 – HOU 17
  • Q2 01:02 FG HOU (1:02) 16-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. JAX 7 – HOU 20
  • Q2 00:12 TD HOU (:12) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass short middle to 89-D.Amendola for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – HOU 26
  • Q3 03:28 TD HOU (3:28) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-M.Ingram. 30-P.Lindsay left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – HOU 33
  • Q3 01:56 TD JAX (1:56) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – HOU 34
  • Q4 11:59 FG HOU (11:59) 16-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. JAX 14 – HOU 37
  • Q4 00:09 TD JAX (:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – HOU 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for no gain (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 4.22

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 5.12

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

    (4:44) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%

    (8:11) 16-J.Slye 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 46%

    (3:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Punt Hangtime: 3.97

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (1:02) 16-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at HOU 31 for 8 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). Punt Hangtime: 4.91

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 28 for no gain (53-D.Allen). Punt Hangtime: 3.81

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (9:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-27-C.Claybrooks.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 1 yard (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 3.4

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (14:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 3.87

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:59) 16-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to HOU 46 for 14 yards (25-D.King) [55-D.Walker].

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Punt Hangtime: 4.59

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 20 for 9 yards (42-A.Wingard; 49-C.Russell). Punt Hangtime: 4.5

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 4.03