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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for no gain (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 4.22

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model