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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model