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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 34

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 3.87

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model