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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 22

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 16-J.Slye 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model