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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 28 for no gain (53-D.Allen). Punt Hangtime: 3.81

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model