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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at HOU 31 for 8 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). Punt Hangtime: 4.91

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model