Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 37

(5:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-A.Roberts to HOU 20 for 9 yards (42-A.Wingard; 49-C.Russell). Punt Hangtime: 4.5

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model