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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 5.12

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP