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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 7

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 16-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model