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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-27-C.Claybrooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP