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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 37

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to HOU 46 for 14 yards (25-D.King) [55-D.Walker].

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP