Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PHI defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.423 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NE offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.138 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.149 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
NE
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:42 FG PHI (13:42) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NE 0 – PHI 3
- Q2 12:40 TD PHI (12:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Jones at NE -3. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – PHI 9
- Q2 08:40 FG NE (8:40) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – PHI 10
- Q2 03:24 FG NE (3:24) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6 – PHI 10
- Q2 01:47 FG NE (1:47) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9 – PHI 10
- Q3 10:55 TD NE (10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-M.Jenkins]. NE 15 – PHI 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%
(13:42) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to PHI 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:27) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 26 for -1 yards (39-C.James; 36-R.Ford).
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Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:18) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%
(8:40) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(6:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to PHI 48 for 14 yards (36-R.Ford).
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Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(3:24) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
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Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%
(1:47) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NE 17, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu.
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Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:26) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%
(3:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to PHI 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 48 for 10 yards (50-D.Riley).
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Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%
(:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 55%
(12:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
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Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 7 yards (29-J.Bethel).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to NE 2, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-36-R.Ford.
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Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(4:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 6 yards (51-J.Bentley). PENALTY on PHI-36-R.Ford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 12.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%
(1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor [54-D.Hightower]. PHI-13-N.Agholor was injured during the play.
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.
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