Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 60

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(12:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to PHI 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model