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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 95

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 48 for 10 yards (50-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model