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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 61

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 6 yards (51-J.Bentley). PENALTY on PHI-36-R.Ford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model