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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to NE 2, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-36-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model