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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 21

New England Patriots 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model