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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model