Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New England Patriots 0

(10:27) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 26 for -1 yards (39-C.James; 36-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.76 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model