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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to PHI 48 for 14 yards (36-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.62 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model