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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NE 17, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -1.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model