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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor [54-D.Hightower]. PHI-13-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP