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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 17

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model