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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN
29.2%
MIN
70.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
MIN 28
Projected margin: MIN by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Jeff Heuerman TE Doubtful Knee
Ja'Wuan James T Doubtful Knee
DaeSean Hamilton WR Questionable Knee

MIN

Anthony Harris S Out Groin
Linval Joseph DT Out Knee
Josh Kline G Out Concussion
Adam Thielen WR Out Hamstring
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:36 FG DEN (11:36) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 04:43 TD DEN (4:43) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 84-T.Fumagalli for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – MIN 0
  • Q2 12:28 TD DEN (12:28) 32-A.Janovich up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – MIN 0
  • Q2 01:10 FG DEN (1:10) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 20 – MIN 0
  • Q3 11:34 TD MIN (11:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – MIN 6
  • Q3 04:27 FG DEN (4:27) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 23 – MIN 7
  • Q4 13:30 TD MIN (13:30) (No Huddle) 33-D.Cook right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – MIN 13
  • Q4 10:29 TD MIN (10:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – MIN 19
  • Q4 06:10 TD MIN (6:10) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – MIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 81%

    (11:36) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:10) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:12) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to MIN 45, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 40%

    (7:08) 2-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DEN 10, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (14:13) 14-C.Sutton left end to MIN 6 for 1 yard (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:37) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 16, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (3:13) 6-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 20. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 20 for no gain (43-J.Jones).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (1:10) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 17 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:09) 2-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 7, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:13) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to MIN 46 for 1 yard (99-A.Gotsis; 51-T.Davis).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (4:27) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:02) 33-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (98-M.Purcell).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to MIN 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 38. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 38 for no gain (54-J.Watson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (8:19) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 87-N.Fant to MIN 34 for 11 yards (55-A.Barr).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 79%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to MIN 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Hughes).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen right end to MIN 4 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse).