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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 30

Denver Broncos 23 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to MIN 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP