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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 11

Denver Broncos 17 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model