Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 23 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to MIN 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 38. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 38 for no gain (54-J.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model