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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 53

Denver Broncos 17 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 6-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 20. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 20 for no gain (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model