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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 7, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -1.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model