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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to MIN 46 for 1 yard (99-A.Gotsis; 51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model