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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP