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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 15

Denver Broncos 23 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen right end to MIN 4 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.39 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP