4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 2-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DEN 10, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.20 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP