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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 45

Denver Broncos 23 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 87-N.Fant to MIN 34 for 11 yards (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model