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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BUF
54.7%
MIA
45.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) -0.017 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.037 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BUF

Jerry Hughes DE Questionable Groin

MIA

Ken Webster CB Out Ankle
Reshad Jones S Questionable Chest
Avery Moss DE Questionable Ankle
Taco Charlton DE Questionable Elbow
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 37
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 FG BUF (12:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:34 FG BUF (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 13:16 TD BUF (13:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – MIA 0
  • Q2 07:46 FG BUF (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 16 – MIA 0
  • Q2 03:43 TD MIA (3:43) 27-K.Ballage up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – MIA 6
  • Q2 01:30 TD BUF (1:30) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – MIA 7
  • Q2 01:23 TD MIA 4-S.Hauschka kicks 66 yards from BUF 35 to MIA -1. 19-J.Grant for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – MIA 13
  • Q3 07:04 TD BUF (7:04) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-32-K.Crawley, Defensive Holding, declined. BUF 29 – MIA 14
  • Q4 14:39 TD MIA (14:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 19-J.Grant right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – MIA 20
  • Q4 10:43 TD BUF (10:43) (No Huddle) 17-Jos.Allen pass short middle to 15-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 36 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (12:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to MIA 42 for 14 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 87%

    (6:50) 20-F.Gore up the middle to MIA 19 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:29) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to BUF 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 35 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:36) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:44) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to MIA 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:55) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIA 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 59 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 12 for 5 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:29) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 16 at the 43
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 39%

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki (49-T.Edmunds). MIA-70-J.Davenport was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 36%

    (8:10) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:26) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at BUF 13 for 45 yards (21-J.Poyer).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (3:48) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right guard to BUF 4 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%

    (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 15-A.Wilson.