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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to MIA 42 for 14 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model