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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 22
Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 0
What Actually Happened
(6:50) 20-F.Gore up the middle to MIA 19 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
The Three Options
GO
+2.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.36 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK
+1.22 EP
- 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
