Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

(11:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to BUF 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 35 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.09 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model