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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 15-A.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP