4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model