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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 13 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.35 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP