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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 30 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP