Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 16 – Miami Dolphins 0

(5:44) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to MIA 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.79 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model