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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 37 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP