Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 23 – Miami Dolphins 14

(:55) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIA 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model