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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki (49-T.Edmunds). MIA-70-J.Davenport was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP