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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

LA
34.0%
ATL
66.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LA

Clay Matthews LB Out Jaw
Malcolm Brown RB Doubtful Ankle
Bryce Hager LB Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Desmond Trufant CB Out Toe

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 37
–
ATL 10

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:28 FG ATL (11:28) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub. LA 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 01:47 FG LA (1:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 11:22 TD LA (11:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ATL 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG LA (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – ATL 3
  • Q3 10:40 TD LA (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 81-G.Everett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – ATL 3
  • Q3 06:39 TD LA (6:39) 16-J.Goff left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – ATL 3
  • Q4 05:46 FG LA (5:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 30 – ATL 3
  • Q4 02:41 TD ATL (2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – ATL 9
  • Q4 00:28 TD LA (:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-R.Gage to ATL 11 for no gain (51-T.Reeder). FUMBLES (51-T.Reeder), touched at ATL 5, RECOVERED by LA-31-D.Williams at ATL 0. TOUCHDOWN. LA 36 – ATL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 68%

    (11:28) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

    (5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 61%

    (1:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (:08) 9-K.Redfern punts 37 yards to LA 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-M.Thomas to LA 15 for 3 yards (83-R.Gage).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 28%

    (6:56) 9-K.Redfern punts 37 yards to LA 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-47-J.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 13.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%

    (4:24) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 33-N.Scott pushed ob at ATL 23 for 23 yards (28-J.Miller).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%

    (1:15) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to ATL 45, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:32) 9-K.Redfern punts 50 yards to LA 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at LA 49 for 35 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:38) 9-K.Redfern punts 39 yards to LA 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Natson to LA 28 for -2 yards (87-J.Graham, 53-J.Grace).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-33-N.Scott.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (5:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-R.Gage to ATL 11 for no gain (51-T.Reeder). FUMBLES (51-T.Reeder), touched at ATL 5, RECOVERED by LA-31-D.Williams at ATL 0. TOUCHDOWN.