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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP