Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(:32) 9-K.Redfern punts 50 yards to LA 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at LA 49 for 35 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.42 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -2.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model